How to interpret China’s revision of energy data?

China revised its energy data after its 3rd national economic census has generated discussions at home and abroad about its implications for China's carbon emission, climate targets as well as Paris climate talks at the end of the year. Chinese local NGO Greenovtiaon Hub shares its understanding of the revision as below:

 

The revision and the facts

 

It is true that China revised its energy statistics. In the Statistical Communique of China's 2014 National Economic and Social Development[1] released in February this year, it is estimated that total energy consumption in 2014 is 4.26 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent (tce), a year-on-year increase by 2.2%. This is based on the results of the Third National Economic Census, which revised the output of coal from 3.68 billion tonnes to 3.97 billion tonnes. Since the revision made public in February, experts working on China's energy in China and abroad have updated their scenario design and emission predictions accordingly.

 

China's energy transition in the future won't be changed, although revised data shows China emitted more coal than previously recorded in the past few years. According to the communiqué in February, China's total coal use in 2014 dropped by 2.9%, which has been the first of its kind since 2000. China's coal use is expected to be plateauing with its strong air pollution control and energy transition measures. Statistics show that in the first half of 2015, national coal use dropped by up to 100 million tonnes compared to that of 2014, while coal production and sales dropped by 5.8% and coal imports dropped by 37.5%. National total coal use in 2015 is expected to continue to decline, with the lowest growth rate in the past 30 years. Moreover, China is leading the global investment in clean energies, with itshydro, wind and solar growing. To implement the national air pollution prevention and control action plan, provinces and cities are carrying out local action plans to substitute the coal-fired boilers with natural gas, etc.  

 

What does the revision mean?  

 

The revision of the energy statistics shows China's efforts to improve its data quality. It is international practice to conduct regular economic census, to understand the development structure, scale and economic situation of the industry and service industries, so as to make national economic and social development plans, and provide detailed statistics to various sectors in the country and the international world. China conducts its national economic census once for five years. The revision of energy data by the 3rd economic census helps the world and China itself to have a better understanding of its energy production and consumption. It actually shows the rigorous way of its improving data quality and being transparent about it. Improved data quality also lays the foundation for a smooth beginning of establishing national carbon market in 2017.  

 

This also shows that China is serious about its climate pledges to the internationalworld, as it hasn't changed its energy use cap and control or non-fossil fuel targets since the revision. According to the Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020) released in Nov., 2014, coal share in the total energy use will continue to decline, till below 62% by 2020[2]. Also, it is planned that the total primary energy use will be controlled at around 4.8 billion tce, while total coal use around 4.2 billion tonnes. In its INDC submitted to UNFCCC in June, China pledged to achieve the peak of CO2 by 2030 and try to peak as soon as possible. The revised data means China has to take extra efforts if it wants to achieve the energy and climate targets. In its 5th Plenary Session of CPC Central Committee, China plans to put energy use control as priority, and to control the total amount as well as intensity growth in energy and water sectors. All these policies and measures show that China is taking positive action to combat climate change.  

 

Globally speaking, China's energy data revision will not influence the data on global CO2 emissions. Scientists observe and calculate the global CO2 concentration in the atmosphere by direct monitoring, reporting and verification, rather than consolidated from countries' reporting of their emissions based on their own methodologies. However, its revision does call for more updates in the sinks such as forest sink, etc.  

 

Paris climate talks at the end of the year are expected to set a new global climate regime after 2020, and the revision is a sign that China is taking efforts to promote the Paris climate conference in a responsible attitude, rather than the opposite. Improved data quality is a critical step for China to better monitor, report and verify its GHG emissions, so as to contribute to the global efforts to take climate action. Energy experts have been following the revision since it was released this February. China shows its determination to and confidence in taking climateaction, by being transparent about improving its data quality, and keeping theoriginal energy consumption control and climate targets. With the Paris approaching, if China could proactively respond to the concerns of the international world, it would deepen countries' understanding of China climate action, build mutual trust and inject more confidence in the global climate regime, for Paris to achieve an ambitious and equitable climate agreement.