June 30, 2015, Chinese Premier Minister Li Keqiang announced during his official visit in France that China has submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to the Secretariat of UNFCCC. Based on its national circumstances, development stage, sustainable development strategy and international responsibility, China commits to take following actions by 2030:
To achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;
To lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from the 2005 level;
To increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20%; and
To increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters on the 2005 level.
Moreover, China shall continue to implement specific policies and measures to meet this commitment, including national strategies, regional strategies, low-carbon energy system and industry system, emission control from building and transportation sectors, carbon sinks, lifestyle, enhancing climate resilience, low carbon development growth pattern, science-technology support, financial policy support, carbon emission trading, statistics and accounting system for emission, stakeholder engagement and International cooperation.
By now, 44 countries have officially submitted their INDCs to the UNFCCC. The world's largest three emitters by current total emissions- China, the U.S. and the EU have all submitted their post-2020 climate action plans. China is also the fifth country after Mexico, Morocco, Ethiopia and Serbia who have submitted their INDCs as developing countries. The submission of INDCs represents the countries' response to the need of achieving a global agreement for a post-2020 climate mitigation and adaptation plan.
Greenovation Hub welcomes China's pledges in its INDC
*China's climate pledges (INDC) inject new positive momentum to the global climate action, and build up confidence of other countries to submit ambitious climate plans. China's climate actions are not only responding to its global responsibilities but also based on its own interests and domestic needs. As one of the most severely affected countries by climate disasters, China faces multiple challenges of controlling air pollution, ensuring energy security, and managing economic structural shift.
China's INDC has laid out its 2030 target, as well as the policies, measures and concrete actions. With the increasing motivation for energy saving and emission reduction, China has issued a series of policies on energy system transition, resource efficiency and low-carbon development etc., which have resulted in significant progress. In terms of energy consumption, the domestic coal production and consumption both dropped in 2014; and the amount of CO2 emissions reductions resulting from China's coal use drop during the first four months of 2015 is equivalent to the total emissions reductions of the UK over the same period. In addition, China invested up to $89.5 billion in clean energies in 2014, accounting for 29 percent of that of the world, a year-on-year increase of 32 percent. A recent study by the national think tank Energy Research Institute of NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) finds that it is both technically and economically feasible for renewable energy to provide over 60 percent of China's primary energy consumption and 85 percent of electricity consumption by 2050; and under this scenario, China will be able to peak fossil related energy consumption and carbon emission by 2025. China shall build on the current momentum and accelerate the efforts to peak coal consumption by 2020 or there before, in order to achieve an emission peak at a lower level before 2030.
* China has proposed to further strengthen its South-South cooperation efforts and establish the Fund for South-South Cooperation on Climate Change. This signals that China is willing and ready to take responsibilities in line with its national situations and capacity, and enhance the determination of other countries to take climate action. China could make full use of the South-South Cooperation Fund on Climate change, to help developing countries to deal with the extreme weather events and climate disasters, as well as shift its development to a more sustainable path. It is critical support for development countries, particularly at the crucial moment when the developed countries fail to make clarity on how to honor their climate finance commitment. Through the South-South Climate Fund, China could leverage more capital to invest in climate-friendly sectors, and promote the upgrade and transformation of foreign trade and investment.
In addition, the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Silk Road Fund shall incorporate climate-friendly principles into the investment decisions, to boost the development of the renewable energy market in developing countries, and accelerate the pace of global energy transition.
* Paris climate agreement will be the first international climate mechanism with a major "bottom-up" approach that all Parties make their self-determined contributions to the global response against climate change. This model helps open up space for countries to fulfill their climate responsibilities. However, the formula of the post-2020 climate regime also requires a robust review mechanism with enough trusts from parties to evaluate national action efforts in correlation to the respective development phases and the required efforts for a safe climate. We expect China to play an active and constructive role, contributing to reach a consensus on a strong review mechanism at the COP21 in Paris, to ensure a robust assessment of post-2020 actions (which also includes the climate finance support) that can strengthen national climate ambitions over time.
* In the world's efforts to meet the long-term goal of controlling global average temperature raise below 2degC and achieve a global de-carbonization future, it is critical to fulfill or even raise the pre-2020 pledges as well as set ambitious post 2020 targets. As the world's largest carbon emitter, China does play a key role. Yet it's neither possible nor fair to achieve the 2degC target, without sufficient actions of the other countries, especially the developed countries. So far, the emissions reduction targets submitted by developed countries are far from enough. Developed countries need to also honor the previously pledged $100 billion a year by 2020 and make the path clear as soon as possible, and support developing countries with relevant technology transfer and capacity building to tackle climate change lead to and beyond 2020.
Interpretation of key information of China's INDC
Peak year
In its announcement, China has pledged to peak carbon dioxide emission by 2030, without further clarification on the level of the emissions peak or when the emissions start to drop after the peak and at what rate. Therefore, it is difficult to make a quantified assessment on whether China's contributions meet the requirement of the 2degC trajectory. According to the data of Nature Earth Science, China's CO2 emission reached 10 billion tonnes in 2013, accounting for 28 percent of the world's total emissions. There are some international organizations and think tanks, who have or are conducting studies on China's carbon emission peak. According to a study of London School of Economics(LSE), China's greenhouse gas emissions will probably peak in 2025, five years earlier than the INDC proposed peak year. Another report by the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation of NDRC recommends that, based on the goal of limiting global average temperature rise to no more than 2 degC, China should peak its CO2 emissions by 2030 and by 2050 should reduce emissions to 2010 levels. Moreover, it suggests China could make more efforts and strike to peak its CO2 emissions by 2025 and reduce its 2050 CO2 emissions to the 2005 levels.
Carbon intensity
Although China did not specify the peaking level, in accordance with the trajectory of Chinese climate policies in recent years, we can see that in the process towards the peak year, each of the coming Five-Year Plan will have the milestones including a combination of carbon intensity target, coal and air pollution control target, as well as renewable energy target including total capacity and its proportion in total energy or electricity. China's pledge to lower carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% by 2030 from the 2005 level, is an important initiative to achieve the emission peak as soon as possible, and will play a substantive impact for the macro-economy in the next 10 years or even longer. In terms of energy consumption, the domestic coal production and consumption both dropped in 2014; and the coal consumption decreased during the first four months of 2015. Under the strengthened policies and measures with regards to the coal consumption control, China is expected to have its coal consumption peak by 2020 or before, in order to achieve an emission peak at a lower level before 2030.
Relevant links
Submitted INDCs (UNFCCC)
Interpretation and Analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions Submitted by Switzerland and the EU (Greenovation Hub)
Climate Equity—Key to a Global Climate Deal in 2015 (Greenovation Hub)
CLIMATE AND FINANCE POLICY CENTER
(www.ghub.org/cfc_en)
G:HUB promotes the development and implementation of sound climate and financial policies, and encourages critical dialogue among different stakeholders, the Climate and Finance Policy Center seeks positive changes in climate and sustainable finance via high-quality research and analysis.
